Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)4.40.0−4.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)14.06.7−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Casey WashingtonWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jawhar JordanRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)8.53.6−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.92.9+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17British BrooksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)19.019.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Will ShipleyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.40.2−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.10.0−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)8.613.3+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.42.8+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Isaiah DavisRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)4.13.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jermaine BurtonWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)21.332.4+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Troy FranklinWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.45.7−6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.92.6−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)5.81.5−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)11.57.9−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.45.9+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)10.54.1−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)18.023.0+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.49.5+7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)10.421.4+11.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.05.0+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tai FeltonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.85.7+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jordan JamesRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.51.6−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1)0.70.4−0.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Quinn EwersQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)11.015.8+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)9.37.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.922.5+13.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.33.0+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jahdae WalkerWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.15.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Theo Wease Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.213.3+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacoby JonesWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Coleman OwenWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.94.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Max BrosmerQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)10.93.6−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.01.5+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Corey KinerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.40.2−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.712.0+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.43.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)7.58.5+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.63.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Robbie OuztsRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)10.411.0+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)16.325.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.12.5−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)13.58.2−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.127.8+17.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.8)15.421.9+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)13.817.1+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)14.815.5+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)14.917.6+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.68.9+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)12.19.4−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.61.6−11.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Brandin CooksWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 9 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse