Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Raheem MostertRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.91.9+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.01.4−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.35.4+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.616.2+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)17.022.8+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.210.3+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)18.719.2+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)10.115.5+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.526.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)17.610.6−7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.53.6+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kendrick BourneWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)7.35.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Patrick RicardRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.48.0+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)10.00.2−9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.55.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.51.6−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent SherfieldWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.41.4−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)9.84.4−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)7.912.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)19.86.9−12.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Dante PettisWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Justice HillRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.71.9+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)0.74.9+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tom KennedyWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.95.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)13.68.2−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)11.31.4−9.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)14.44.8−9.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Giovanni RicciTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16James ProcheWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)18.116.9−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)12.07.2−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)15.218.1+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)14.69.0−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)6.33.4−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)18.330.2+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Van JeffersonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.04.4−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)1.61.3−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)18.529.0+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.65.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.41.5+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brock WrightTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.417.8+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 10 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse