Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 60.4% (95% 56.5%–64.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.7% (95% 57.8%–65.4%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 63.1% (95% 52.4%–72.6%) vs baseline 61.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR339–194–3463.6%63.7%
RB184–116–3361.3%61.8%
TE177–120–5859.6%60.9%
QB55–52–851.4%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag375–246–6860.4%61.4%
0.25–0.5380–236–6561.7%61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W3Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)4.019.3+15.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)12.35.6−6.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tre HarrisWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)6.513.6+7.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)5.81.9−3.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Max BredesonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Demond ClaiborneRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)2.00.1−1.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2C.J. HamRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Carson WentzQB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2)13.06.3−6.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jared GoffQB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2)16.729.8+13.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)12.410.5−1.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Alvin KamaraRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)8.87.2−1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyler ConklinTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Nyheim HinesRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dante PettisWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.35.9−2.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Josh OliverTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3)3.53.4−0.1pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Noah FantTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)4.70.0−4.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Juwan JohnsonTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)8.610.6+2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)16.58.5−8.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2DeeJay DallasRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)1.73.0+1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jack StollTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Brock WrightTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)18.235.2+17.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Travis EtienneRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)9.67.1−2.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Samori ToureWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.91.7−1.2voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Chris OlaveWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)13.822.6+8.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)13.25.3−7.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)3.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tay MartinWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jordan MasonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)6.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Evan HullRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Kendre MillerRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ronnie BellWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ben SimsTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)9.34.1−5.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)10.817.2+6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)22.923.3+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sione VakiRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)4.43.0−1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Audric EstiméRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)5.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Devaughn VeleWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)7.711.4+3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Treyton WelchTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Mason TiptonWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Devin NealRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Moliki MatavaoTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zach HortonTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Myles PriceWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyler ShoughQB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2)14.222.4+8.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Bryce LanceWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.11.8−4.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Max BredesonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Barion BrownWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2CJ DonaldsonRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.00.2−1.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Keenan AllenWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)7.310.6+3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kalif RaymondWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)4.08.2+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5)20.30.7−19.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jared GoffQB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5)16.215.2−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)2.52.2−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)2.21.6−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyler ConklinTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)1.11.6+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W18DJ CharkWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Miles SandersRB DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2)13.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2)8.76.5−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.5)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0)17.91.4−16.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dez FitzpatrickWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jermar JeffersonRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brock WrightTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaret PattersonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2)3.06.7+3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)17.824.9+7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)16.213.4−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18George PickensWR DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0)17.81.9−15.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Hassan HaskinsRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2)2.00.3−1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tucker FiskTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalen TolbertWR DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0)6.10.0−6.1✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 27 · 2,659 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse