Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W3 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.5) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +1.3) | 14.4 | 21.8 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.6) | 15.7 | 8.5 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 25.4 | 21.3 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.8) | 19.3 | 35.3 | +16.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 17.9 | 8.9 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 9.7 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 5.9 | 0.5 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 17.5 | 1.7 | −15.8 | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 25.8 | 41.4 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.9) | 15.5 | 7.8 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jawhar JordanRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 3.1 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.9) | 6.9 | 3.5 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 4.5 | 4.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 9.1 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 12.3 | 9.1 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 5.6 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 17.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | 10.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 3.9 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 9.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jeremiyah LoveRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | 21.9 | +14.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kenyon SadiqTE NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 23.5 | +18.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kaytron AllenRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jadarian PriceRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 1.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ameer AbdullahRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | 2.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 21.8 | 17.7 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 23.1 | 22.6 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 26.0 | +15.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | DJ MooreWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | -0.1 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 15.1 | 3.0 | −12.1 | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | 0.9 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | David MontgomeryRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 9.5 | 4.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Rico DowdleRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 6.4 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 3.6 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 17.5 | 29.2 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 12.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 14.7 | 3.6 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Kenny GainwellRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 8.8 | 4.5 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Travis EtienneRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 7.1 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 17.6 | 8.0 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 2.4 | −1.7 | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.4 | 9.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.5) | 19.9 | 20.9 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | 6.8 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyler AllgeierRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | 3.9 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 14.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected −0.7) | 20.2 | 11.1 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 16.8 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.8) | 9.6 | 1.3 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Emari DemercadoRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 0.8 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 3.7 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.8) | 12.9 | 12.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 22.9 | 23.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.9) | 16.7 | 13.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jawhar JordanRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 11.6 | 8.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 9.4 | 9.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.7) | 6.0 | 14.2 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 8.7 | 13.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs TB, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 9.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 4.2 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.8) | 18.7 | 12.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 22.2 | 11.7 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.9) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.1) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 11.2 | 6.5 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse