Who to start · 2025-26
Adam Larsson vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Adam Larsson projects to 1.64 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Larsson has 2 games left with 1 soft matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Larsson for 3.7 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Pavel Buchnevich has the better number in 22 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Larsson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +56, Goals above expected +2.7, Hits 110.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 42.9%, Sequence xG 52.5%, Expected goals 52.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adam Larsson
1.64
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Adam Larsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larsson | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.16 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.99 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larsson vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larsson 0G 5A, 25 SOG · Buchnevich 7G 6A, 25 SOG
Larsson blocked 1 of Buchnevich's shots; Buchnevich blocked 0 of Larsson's.
On the ice against each other (Larsson's side)
13:00 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Larsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–10
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.6
- 26.6%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larsson | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | SEA 2–3 STL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-02-26 | SEA 1–5 STL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-11-08 | SEA 4–3 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-04-12 | SEA 4–3 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-02-25 | SEA 2–7 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-10-08 | SEA 2–3 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-14 | SEA 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-01-26 | SEA 3–4 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 1A 2S |
| 2023-10-14 | SEA 1–2 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-28 | SEA 5–3 STL | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2022-12-20 | SEA 5–2 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-06 | SEA 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Adam Larsson
3games (2 left)
3.7proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CGYOpp allows the most FP to DLikely vs Dustin Wolf (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ EDM1.8 ptsOpp allows 10th-most FP to DLikely vs Tristan Jarry (.882)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs CGYB2B1.8 ptsOpp allows the most FP to DLikely vs Dustin Wolf (.899)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adam Larsson or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Adam Larsson projects to 1.64 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Adam Larsson or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Buchnevich leads in 22 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larsson and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Larsson's team went 7–11. Larsson had 5 points (0 goals) and Buchnevich had 13 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →