Who to start · 2025-26
Adam Larsson vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Larsson's 1.64.
Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Larsson has 2 games left; Hertl has 1 left. We project Larsson for 3.3 ESPN points to Hertl's 1.8.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Larsson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.6, Luck Meter +38, On-ice PDO 999.
Hertl's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 47.7%, High-danger chances 59.2%, Corsi 56.2%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adam Larsson
1.64
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larsson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.16 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.99 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larsson vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larsson 2G 6A, 39 SOG · Hertl 6G 13A, 36 SOG
Larsson blocked 2 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 3 of Larsson's.
On the ice against each other (Larsson's side)
16:46 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Larsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–14
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.3
- 70.7%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larsson | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | SEA 1–4 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-04-09 | SEA 4–3 VGK | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-01-31 | SEA 3–2 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-10-11 | SEA 2–1 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-04-10 | SEA 1–2 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-12-21 | SEA 2–6 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-11-08 | SEA 4–3 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-22 | SEA 7–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-03-16 | SEA 2–1 SJS | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-23 | SEA 8–5 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2022-04-29 | SEA 3–0 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-02-27 | SEA 1–3 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 22 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Adam Larsson
3games (2 left)
3.3proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CGY
- Sat, Oct 3 @ EDM1.6 pts
- Sun, Oct 4 vs CGYB2B1.6 pts
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN1.8 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adam Larsson or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Larsson's 1.64. Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Adam Larsson or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larsson and Hertl done against each other?
- In 22 games against each other in our data, Larsson's team went 12–10. Larsson had 8 points (2 goals) and Hertl had 19 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →