Who to start · 2025-26
Alexis Lafrenière vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Alexis Lafrenière's 1.41.
Lafrenière had 57 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Lafrenière has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Lafrenière's 1.2.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Lafrenière's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1016, Luck Meter +12, Goals above expected −0.6.
Hertl's biggest edges: Ascension score 61, Faceoffs won 720, Hardest shot 89.5.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Alexis Lafrenière
1.41
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Lafrenière | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Lafrenière vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Lafrenière 2G 3A, 16 SOG · Hertl 2G 6A, 23 SOG
Lafrenière's offensive zone 2–0 · neutral 0–0 · Lafrenière's defensive zone 0–1 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Lafrenière's side)
7:10 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Lafrenière's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–6
- 68.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.1
- 86.4%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Lafrenière | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | NYR 2–3 VGK | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-18 | NYR 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-02-02 | NYR 4–2 VGK | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-11 | NYR 2–1 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-01-23 | NYR 2–3 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-12-03 | NYR 6–5 SJS | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-11-19 | NYR 2–1 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-10-20 | NYR 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2021-12-03 | NYR 1–0 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Alexis Lafrenière
4games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 6th-most FP to LWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANALikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Alexis Lafrenière or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Alexis Lafrenière's 1.41. Lafrenière had 57 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Alexis Lafrenière or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Lafrenière and Hertl done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, Lafrenière's team went 5–4. Lafrenière had 5 points (2 goals) and Hertl had 8 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Lafrenière or Hertl?
- Against each other, Lafrenière has won 2 and Hertl 1 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →