Who to start · 2025-26
Auston Matthews vs Bryan Rust
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Bryan Rust's 2.28.
Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games.
This week Matthews has 1 game left; Rust has 1 left. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Rust's 2.2.
Bryan Rust has the better number in 21 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Matthews's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.09, Faceoffs won 580, Expected goals 48.5%.
Rust's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.5, Luck Meter +32, Top skating speed 22.8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Auston Matthews
2.56
fantasy points per game
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.
| Points per game from | Matthews | Rust |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.81 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Matthews vs Rust
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matthews 8G 13A, 69 SOG · Rust 6G 13A, 44 SOG
Matthews's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 1–0 · Matthews's defensive zone 0–0 (2017-18)
Matthews blocked 1 of Rust's shots; Rust blocked 0 of Matthews's.
On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)
28:03 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side
- Shot attempts
- 27–27
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.7–1.1
- 60.7%
- Goals
- 5–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matthews | Rust |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6–3 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-29 | TOR 7–2 PIT | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4–3 PIT | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-03-02 | TOR 6–5 PIT | 1G 1A 6S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2024-12-07 | TOR 2–5 PIT | 0G 2A 4S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-10-12 | TOR 4–2 PIT | 0G 0A 8S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-08 | TOR 3–2 PIT | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2022-11-26 | TOR 4–1 PIT | 1G 2A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-11-15 | TOR 5–2 PIT | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-11 | TOR 2–4 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-02-17 | TOR 4–1 PIT | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-11-20 | TOR 0–2 PIT | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 3S |
Latest 12 of 19 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Auston Matthews
3games (1 left)
2.7proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Auston Matthews or Bryan Rust in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Bryan Rust's 2.28. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Auston Matthews or Bryan Rust?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Bryan Rust leads in 21 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Matthews and Rust done against each other?
- In 19 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 12–7. Matthews had 21 points (8 goals) and Rust had 19 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or Rust?
- Against each other, Matthews has won 1 and Rust 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →