Who to start · 2025-26
Brad Marchand vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brad Marchand projects to 2.26 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Marchand had 54 points in 52 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Marchand has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Marchand's 1.8.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 24 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Marchand's biggest edges: Goals above expected +6.9, Luck Meter +50, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.33.
Aho's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 596, Plus/minus +11, Fenwick 60.3%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brad Marchand
2.26
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.03
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brad Marchand has the edge.
| Points per game from | Marchand | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.04 | 0.68 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Marchand vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marchand 15G 24A, 86 SOG · Aho 16G 17A, 83 SOG
Marchand's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 1–0 · Marchand's defensive zone 0–0 (2018-19 to 2022-23)
Marchand blocked 3 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 1 of Marchand's.
On the ice against each other (Marchand's side)
7:04 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Marchand's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–17
- 29.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.5
- 48.0%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marchand | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | FLA 5–2 CAR | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-19 | FLA 4–3 CAR | 1G 1A 4S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2025-05-28 · PO | FLA 5–3 CAR | 0G 1A 4S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2025-05-26 · PO | FLA 0–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 7S |
| 2025-05-24 · PO | FLA 6–2 CAR | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-05-22 · PO | FLA 5–0 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-05-20 · PO | FLA 5–2 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2024-10-31 | BOS 2–8 CAR | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-04-09 | BOS 1–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-04 | BOS 4–1 CAR | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-24 | BOS 2–3 CAR | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2023-01-29 | BOS 1–4 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 33 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brad Marchand
3games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ CAROpp allows 9th-most FP to LW
- Thu, Oct 1 @ SJSOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −1.0 win%
- Sun, Oct 4 @ ANA1.8 ptsOpp allows 8th-most FP to LW
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to C
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to C
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brad Marchand or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brad Marchand projects to 2.26 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Marchand had 54 points in 52 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brad Marchand or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 24 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Marchand and Aho done against each other?
- In 33 games against each other in our data, Marchand's team went 21–12. Marchand had 39 points (15 goals) and Aho had 33 (16 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Marchand or Aho?
- Against each other, Marchand has won 2 and Aho 1 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →