Who to start · 2025-26
Brandon Saad vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brandon Saad's 0.61.
Saad had 9 points in 49 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Saad has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; MacKinnon has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Saad's 0.7.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 30 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Saad's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.044, High-danger chances 56.4%.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Luck Meter +52, Goals above expected +4.3, Power-play time per game 4:13.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brandon Saad
0.61
fantasy points per game
Nathan MacKinnon
3.17
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | Saad | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.12 | 1.32 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.12 | 0.93 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Saad vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Saad 4G 7A, 60 SOG · MacKinnon 11G 26A, 134 SOG
Saad's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 1–0 · Saad's defensive zone 0–1 (2017-18 to 2018-19)
Saad blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Saad's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Saad's side)
9:53 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Saad's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–18
- 30.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–1.3
- 37.9%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Saad | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 · PO | VGK 3–1 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-20 · PO | VGK 4–2 COL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2026-04-11 | VGK 3–2 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2025-12-27 | VGK 5–6 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 9S |
| 2025-10-31 | VGK 2–4 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-04-08 | VGK 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2024-03-19 | STL 3–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-12-29 | STL 1–2 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-11 | STL 8–2 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2023-11-01 | STL 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2023-01-28 | STL 2–4 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-11-14 | STL 3–2 COL | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 5S |
Latest 12 of 31 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brandon Saad
3games (1 left)
0.7proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to LWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 8th-most FP to LWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN0.7 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brandon Saad or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brandon Saad's 0.61. Saad had 9 points in 49 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brandon Saad or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 30 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Saad and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 31 games against each other in our data, Saad's team went 11–20. Saad had 11 points (4 goals) and MacKinnon had 37 (11 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Saad or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Saad has won 2 and MacKinnon 1 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →