Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Erik Karlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Karlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Nelson for 1.3 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Blocked shots 65, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.000, Penalty minutes 36.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +53, Top skating speed 23.7, Hardest shot 96.6.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.38 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Karlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 4G 6A, 58 SOG · Karlsson 2G 5A, 46 SOG
Nelson blocked 1 of Karlsson's shots; Karlsson blocked 0 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
6:14 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–5
- 61.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.4
- 54.1%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | COL 6–2 PIT | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-16 | COL 2–7 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2024-12-29 | NYI 2–3 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-28 | NYI 6–3 PIT | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-05 | NYI 4–3 PIT | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-04-17 | NYI 5–4 PIT | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-02-20 | NYI 5–4 PIT | 1G 1A 8S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2023-12-31 | NYI 1–3 PIT | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-12-27 | NYI 0–7 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-18 | NYI 4–1 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-10-18 | NYI 5–2 SJS | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2019-11-23 | NYI 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to Dvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Erik Karlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Erik Karlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Karlsson done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 10–7. Nelson had 10 points (4 goals) and Karlsson had 7 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →