Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Mathew Barzal
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Barzal had 72 in 81 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Barzal has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Barzal for 1.4 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 23 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: High-danger chances 57.1%, Faceoff win % 50.4%, Draw Equity /100 +0.005.
Barzal's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 62.4%, Penalty minutes 61, 20+ mph bursts 313.
Head to head on the dot, Nelson leads Barzal 9–6.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.00
fantasy points per game
Mathew Barzal
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Barzal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.47 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Barzal
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 1G 2A, 4 SOG · Barzal 1G 2A, 10 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 3–1 · neutral 3–4 · Nelson's defensive zone 3–1 (2025-26)
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
14:30 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–19
- 40.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.9
- 34.0%
- Goals
- 2–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Barzal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | COL 3–6 NYI | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2025-11-16 | COL 4–1 NYI | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 6S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Mathew Barzal
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Mathew Barzal in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Barzal had 72 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Mathew Barzal?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 23 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Barzal done against each other?
- In 2 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 1–1. Nelson had 3 points (1 goals) and Barzal had 3 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Barzal?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 9 and Barzal 6 of their 15 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →