Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Erik Karlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Karlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 19 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Blocked shots 71, Shorthanded points 2, Penalty minutes 26.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 0, Transition attempts /60 0.43, Expected goals 52.2%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Erik Karlsson
1.94
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.40 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Karlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 3G 5A, 18 SOG · Karlsson 1G 5A, 21 SOG
Rust blocked 9 of Karlsson's shots; Karlsson blocked 1 of Rust's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
488:39 at 5-on-5 over 73 games, 2025-26
- Shot attempts
- 517–468
- 52.5%
- Expected goals
- 21.3–26.2
- 44.9%
- Goals
- 26–26
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-14 | PIT 3–1 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-28 | PIT 4–6 SJS | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2022-01-02 | PIT 8–5 SJS | 3G 2A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2020-01-02 | PIT 2–3 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-02-21 | PIT 0–4 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2019-01-15 | PIT 2–5 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2018-02-13 | PIT 6–3 OTT | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2017-11-16 | PIT 3–1 OTT | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to Dvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Erik Karlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Erik Karlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 19 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Karlsson done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 4–4. Rust had 8 points (3 goals) and Karlsson had 6 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →