Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Mathew Barzal
In 2025-26, Bryan Rust scored 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Barzal had 72 in 81 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Barzal has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Barzal's 1.4.
Mathew Barzal has the better number in 19 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.5, Luck Meter +32, Hardest shot 88.4.
Barzal's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 210, Sequence xG 51.3%, Expected goals 50.9%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Mathew Barzal
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Barzal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.47 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Barzal
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 13G 7A, 94 SOG · Barzal 10G 28A, 103 SOG
Rust's offensive zone 0–2 · neutral 0–0 · Rust's defensive zone 0–0 (2018-19)
Rust blocked 1 of Barzal's shots; Barzal blocked 0 of Rust's.
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
8:57 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–13
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–1.1
- 34.5%
- Goals
- 1–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Barzal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | PIT 8–3 NYI | 1G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2026-02-03 | PIT 4–5 NYI | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2024-12-29 | PIT 3–2 NYI | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-28 | PIT 3–6 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2024-02-20 | PIT 4–5 NYI | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-02-17 | PIT 4–5 NYI | 0G 0A 7S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2022-12-27 | PIT 1–5 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2022-04-14 | PIT 6–3 NYI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2022-04-12 | PIT 4–5 NYI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2021-05-26 · PO | PIT 3–5 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-05-24 · PO | PIT 2–3 NYI | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-05-22 · PO | PIT 1–4 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 37 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Mathew Barzal
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +4.1 win%vs Nico Daws (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Mathew Barzal in fantasy hockey?
- In 2025-26, Bryan Rust scored 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Barzal had 72 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Mathew Barzal?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mathew Barzal leads in 19 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Barzal done against each other?
- In 37 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 16–21. Rust had 20 points (13 goals) and Barzal had 38 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Rust or Barzal?
- Against each other, Rust has won 0 and Barzal 2 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →