Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Aho's 2.2.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 22 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.2, Blocked shots 71, Luck Meter +44.
Aho's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 596, Expected goals 55.1%, Scoring chances 57.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.03
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 6G 14A, 43 SOG · Aho 5G 12A, 62 SOG
Rust's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Rust's defensive zone 0–1 (2023-24)
Rust blocked 1 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 1 of Rust's.
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
24:05 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 29–34
- 46.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.4–1.7
- 46.2%
- Goals
- 3–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | PIT 1–5 CAR | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2026-03-18 | PIT 5–6 CAR | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2026-03-10 | PIT 4–5 CAR | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2025-12-30 | PIT 5–1 CAR | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-05 | PIT 3–4 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 2A 3S |
| 2024-10-18 | PIT 1–4 CAR | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-03-26 | PIT 4–1 CAR | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-13 | PIT 2–3 CAR | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-11-18 | PIT 2–4 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2023-01-14 | PIT 1–2 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-11-29 | PIT 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2022-02-20 | PIT 3–4 CAR | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 20 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 22 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Aho done against each other?
- In 20 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 6–14. Rust had 20 points (6 goals) and Aho had 17 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Rust or Aho?
- Against each other, Rust has won 0 and Aho 1 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →