Who to start · 2025-26
Clayton Keller vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Clayton Keller projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Keller had 88 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Keller has 2 games left with 1 tough matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Keller for 2.9 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Clayton Keller has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Keller's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.037, 20+ mph bursts 147, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.19.
Carlson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.6, Transition attempts /60 0.96, Faceoffs won 0.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Clayton Keller
2.15
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Clayton Keller has the edge.
| Points per game from | Keller | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.83 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Keller vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Keller 3G 8A, 25 SOG · Carlson 2G 7A, 40 SOG
Keller's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Keller's defensive zone 0–0 (2017-18)
Keller blocked 0 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 2 of Keller's.
On the ice against each other (Keller's side)
6:34 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Keller's side
- Shot attempts
- 3–10
- 23.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.3
- 46.4%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Keller | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | UTA 1–4 ANA | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-02-09 | UTA 5–4 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-11-18 | UTA 2–6 WSH | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-12-04 | ARI 6–0 WSH | 0G 3A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2021-10-29 | ARI 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2020-02-15 | ARI 3–1 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-11-11 | ARI 4–3 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2018-12-06 | ARI 2–4 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2018-11-11 | ARI 4–1 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2017-12-22 | ARI 3–2 WSH | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2017-11-06 | ARI 2–3 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Clayton Keller
3games (2 left)
2.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Arvid Soderblom (.880)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ CBJ1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ NYRB2B1.4 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Clayton Keller or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Clayton Keller projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Keller had 88 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Clayton Keller or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Clayton Keller leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Keller and Carlson done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, Keller's team went 6–5. Keller had 11 points (3 goals) and Carlson had 9 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Keller or Carlson?
- Against each other, Keller has won 1 and Carlson 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →