Who to start · 2025-26
Clayton Keller vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Clayton Keller projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Keller had 88 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Keller has 2 games left with 1 tough matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Keller for 2.9 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Clayton Keller has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Keller's biggest edges: Plus/minus +21, Top skating speed 22.8, Fenwick 56.5%.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Goals above expected −0.4, Faceoffs won 98, Hits 30.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Clayton Keller
2.15
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Clayton Keller has the edge.
| Points per game from | Keller | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.83 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Keller vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Keller 10G 20A, 47 SOG · Buchnevich 10G 11A, 33 SOG
Keller's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 1–0 · Keller's defensive zone 0–0 (2024-25)
Keller blocked 0 of Buchnevich's shots; Buchnevich blocked 1 of Keller's.
On the ice against each other (Keller's side)
18:20 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Keller's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–17
- 43.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–1.1
- 29.8%
- Goals
- 1–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Keller | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | UTA 3–5 STL | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2026-01-09 | UTA 4–2 STL | 0G 3A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-29 | UTA 0–1 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-23 | UTA 7–4 STL | 2G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-15 | UTA 1–6 STL | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2025-02-02 | UTA 1–2 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-01-18 | UTA 4–2 STL | 1G 3A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-11-07 | UTA 4–2 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-12-02 | ARI 4–1 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-22 | ARI 5–6 STL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-09 | ARI 1–2 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-03-07 | ARI 6–2 STL | 1G 2A 1S | 2G 0A 5S |
Latest 12 of 20 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Clayton Keller
3games (2 left)
2.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Arvid Soderblom (.880)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ CBJ1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ NYRB2B1.4 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Clayton Keller or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Clayton Keller projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Keller had 88 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Clayton Keller or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Clayton Keller leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Keller and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 20 games against each other in our data, Keller's team went 10–10. Keller had 30 points (10 goals) and Buchnevich had 21 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Keller or Buchnevich?
- Against each other, Keller has won 1 and Buchnevich 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →