Who to start · 2025-26
Connor Bedard vs Mattias Samuelsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor Bedard projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01.
Bedard had 75 points in 69 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games.
This week Bedard has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Samuelsson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Bedard for 2.4 ESPN points to Samuelsson's 2.0.
Mattias Samuelsson has the better number in 18 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Bedard's biggest edges: Power-play share 74.8%, Power-play time per game 3:29, Offensive-zone start % 66.6%.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +41, Hits 132, Forecheck xG /60 0.38.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor Bedard
2.24
fantasy points per game
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor Bedard has the edge.
| Points per game from | Bedard | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.87 | 0.33 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.99 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Bedard vs Samuelsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Bedard 0G 4A, 9 SOG · Samuelsson 1G 0A, 1 SOG
Bedard blocked 0 of Samuelsson's shots; Samuelsson blocked 1 of Bedard's.
On the ice against each other (Bedard's side)
14:11 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Bedard's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–14
- 41.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.8
- 35.7%
- Goals
- 1–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Bedard | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | CHI 1–5 BUF | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-21 | CHI 3–9 BUF | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-27 | CHI 2–6 BUF | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-19 | CHI 2–4 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-19 | CHI 2–3 BUF | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor Bedard
3games (1 left)
2.4proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ VGKOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ UTAOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ BUF2.4 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor Bedard or Mattias Samuelsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor Bedard projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01. Bedard had 75 points in 69 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor Bedard or Mattias Samuelsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mattias Samuelsson leads in 18 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Bedard and Samuelsson done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Bedard's team went 0–5. Bedard had 4 points (0 goals) and Samuelsson had 1 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →