Who to start · 2025-26
Connor Hellebuyck vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
In 2025-26, Connor Hellebuyck posted a .895 save percentage to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's .910.
Against our expected-goals model, Hellebuyck saved +1.1 goals and Luukkonen +8.3.
This week Hellebuyck has 1 game left (about 0.2 expected starts) with 1 soft matchup; Luukkonen has 1 left (about 0.9 expected starts) with 1 soft matchup. We project Luukkonen for 1.2 ESPN points to Hellebuyck's 0.5.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has the better number in 7 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Hellebuyck's biggest edges: Overtime losses 11, Saves 1,385, Games started 57.
Luukkonen's biggest edges: Goals against 85, Rebounds prevented /100 +0.23, High-danger save % .848.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 W, .773 SV%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor Hellebuyck
0.98
fantasy points per game
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
2.66
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has the edge.
| Points per game from | Hellebuyck | Luukkonen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.61 | 2.51 |
| Goals against (-2) | -5.68 | -4.86 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 4.86 | 4.83 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Hellebuyck vs Luukkonen
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hellebuyck | Luukkonen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-23 | WPG 3–5 BUF | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-12-05 | WPG 3–2 BUF | 28/30 SV | 28/31 SV |
| 2024-03-03 | WPG 5–2 BUF | 0/0 SV | 30/33 SV |
| 2023-11-17 | WPG 3–2 BUF | 26/28 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2023-01-26 | WPG 2–3 BUF | 33/36 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2023-01-12 | WPG 4–2 BUF | 39/41 SV | 23/26 SV |
| 2021-12-14 | WPG 2–4 BUF | 23/27 SV | 34/36 SV |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor Hellebuyck
2games (1 left)
0.5proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET20% to start0.5 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to GLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
2games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts
About 0.9 expected starts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to GLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI86% to start1.2 ptsOpp allows 8th-most FP to GLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor Hellebuyck or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?
- In 2025-26, Connor Hellebuyck posted a .895 save percentage to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's .910. Against our expected-goals model, Hellebuyck saved +1.1 goals and Luukkonen +8.3. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Connor Hellebuyck or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen leads in 7 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Hellebuyck and Luukkonen done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, Hellebuyck's team went 4–3.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →