Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Eeli Tolvanen
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Tolvanen had 36 in 78 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left; Tolvanen has 1 left. We project McDavid for 3.2 ESPN points to Tolvanen's 1.6.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: High-danger chances 57.5%, Plus/minus +17, Expected goals 56.5%.
Tolvanen's biggest edges: Hardest shot 92.8, Hits 187, Blocked shots 81.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
Eeli Tolvanen
1.71
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Tolvanen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.48 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.26 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.07 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Tolvanen
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 12G 12A, 54 SOG · Tolvanen 5G 3A, 38 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 1–0 · McDavid's defensive zone 0–0 (2023-24)
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
12:48 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–13
- 48.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.9–0.3
- 75.1%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Tolvanen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | EDM 3–0 SEA | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-12-04 | EDM 9–4 SEA | 3G 1A 7S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-29 | EDM 4–0 SEA | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-25 | EDM 2–3 SEA | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-27 | EDM 4–2 SEA | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-04 | EDM 4–2 SEA | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-02 | EDM 2–1 SEA | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-01-18 | EDM 4–2 SEA | 0G 1A 5S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-11-15 | EDM 4–3 SEA | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 7S |
| 2023-11-11 | EDM 4–1 SEA | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2023-03-18 | EDM 6–4 SEA | 1G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-01-17 | EDM 5–2 SEA | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
3.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VAN
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VAN
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA3.2 pts
Eeli Tolvanen
4games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOS
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBL
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2B
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.6 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Eeli Tolvanen in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Tolvanen had 36 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Eeli Tolvanen?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Tolvanen done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 14–2. McDavid had 24 points (12 goals) and Tolvanen had 8 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Tolvanen?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 1 and Tolvanen 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →