Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs J.T. Miller
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Miller had 53 in 68 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Miller has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Miller's 1.5.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Plus/minus +17, Ascension score 62, Transition attempts /60 2.12.
Miller's biggest edges: Hardest shot 102.6, Hits 123, Faceoff win % 61.5%.
Head to head on the dot, Miller leads McDavid 75–66.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
J.T. Miller
1.63
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.42 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Miller
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 18G 40A, 136 SOG · Miller 12G 26A, 76 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 21–21 · neutral 29–35 · McDavid's defensive zone 16–19 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
McDavid blocked 0 of Miller's shots; Miller blocked 2 of McDavid's.
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
12:55 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–11
- 56.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.5
- 62.6%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Miller |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | EDM 3–4 NYR | 0G 0A 6S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2025-10-14 | EDM 2–0 NYR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-16 | EDM 3–1 NYR | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-18 | EDM 2–3 VAN | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2024-11-09 | EDM 7–3 VAN | 1G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-05-20 · PO | EDM 3–2 VAN | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-05-18 · PO | EDM 5–1 VAN | 0G 3A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-05-16 · PO | EDM 2–3 VAN | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-05-14 · PO | EDM 3–2 VAN | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-05-12 · PO | EDM 3–4 VAN | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2024-05-10 · PO | EDM 4–3 VAN | 1G 3A 5S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2024-05-08 · PO | EDM 4–5 VAN | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 37 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
J.T. Miller
4games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.5 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or J.T. Miller in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Miller had 53 in 68 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or J.T. Miller?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Miller done against each other?
- In 37 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 19–18. McDavid had 58 points (18 goals) and Miller had 38 (12 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Miller?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 66 and Miller 75 of their 141 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →