Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Aho's 2.2.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 23 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.6, Net penalties drawn /60 +1.05, Ascension score 62.
Aho's biggest edges: Hardest shot 89.2, Hits 63, Fenwick 60.3%.
Head to head on the dot, McDavid leads Aho 31–31.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 6G 18A, 45 SOG · Aho 8G 15A, 55 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 8–12 · neutral 14–7 · McDavid's defensive zone 9–12 (2018-19 to 2025-26)
McDavid blocked 1 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 0 of McDavid's.
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
20:30 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 19–24
- 44.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.8
- 50.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | EDM 3–6 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-11-15 | EDM 4–3 CAR | 2G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2025-03-01 | EDM 3–1 CAR | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-10-22 | EDM 2–3 CAR | 2G 0A 5S | 1G 1A 9S |
| 2023-12-06 | EDM 6–1 CAR | 0G 3A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-22 | EDM 3–6 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-11-10 | EDM 2–7 CAR | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2022-10-20 | EDM 6–4 CAR | 1G 3A 4S | 0G 3A 2S |
| 2022-02-27 | EDM 1–2 CAR | 0G 0A 5S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2021-12-11 | EDM 1–3 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 2G 1A 5S |
| 2019-12-10 | EDM 3–6 CAR | 0G 3A 1S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2019-02-15 | EDM 1–3 CAR | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 2A 5S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.8 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 23 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Aho done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 5–10. McDavid had 24 points (6 goals) and Aho had 23 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Aho?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 31 and Aho 31 of their 62 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →