Who to start · 2025-26
Erik Karlsson vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Karlsson has 1 game left; Toffoli has 1 left. We project Karlsson for 1.9 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.4.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.7, 20+ mph bursts 153, Faceoffs won 0.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Hits 48, Blocked shots 31.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Karlsson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.70 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.43 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Karlsson vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Karlsson 3G 21A, 54 SOG · Toffoli 11G 7A, 59 SOG
Karlsson blocked 1 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Karlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Karlsson's side)
6:25 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Karlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–10
- 41.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.4
- 20.8%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Karlsson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | PIT 5–6 SJS | 0G 1A 4S | 2G 2A 5S |
| 2025-10-18 | PIT 3–0 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-27 | PIT 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-11-16 | PIT 4–3 SJS | 0G 1A 4S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2023-11-16 | PIT 2–5 NJD | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-04-12 | SJS 1–3 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2023-03-25 | SJS 3–5 CGY | 0G 2A 2S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-20 | SJS 3–7 CGY | 0G 1A 3S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2022-12-18 | SJS 2–5 CGY | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2022-04-07 | SJS 2–4 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-22 | SJS 4–3 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-10-28 | SJS 0–4 MTL | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 21 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHI
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.9 pts
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLA
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Erik Karlsson or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Erik Karlsson or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Karlsson and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 21 games against each other in our data, Karlsson's team went 8–13. Karlsson had 24 points (3 goals) and Toffoli had 18 (11 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →