Who to start · 2025-26
Gabriel Vilardi vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Gabriel Vilardi's 1.76.
Vilardi had 69 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Vilardi has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Vilardi's 1.3.
John Carlson has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Vilardi's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.014, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.74, Offensive-zone start % 65.5%.
Carlson's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 0.96, Hardest shot 99.8, Top skating speed 22.5.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Gabriel Vilardi
1.76
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Vilardi | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.69 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Vilardi vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Vilardi 4G 0A, 6 SOG · Carlson 2G 3A, 15 SOG
On the ice against each other (Vilardi's side)
11:14 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Vilardi's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–11
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.9–0.4
- 69.6%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Vilardi | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | WPG 5–1 WSH | 2G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-11-26 | WPG 3–4 WSH | 2G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-02-01 | WPG 5–4 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-10-22 | LAK 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 8S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Gabriel Vilardi
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET1.3 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Gabriel Vilardi or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Gabriel Vilardi's 1.76. Vilardi had 69 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Gabriel Vilardi or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Vilardi and Carlson done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Vilardi's team went 2–2. Vilardi had 4 points (4 goals) and Carlson had 5 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →