Who to start · 2025-26
Jack Hughes vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jack Hughes projects to 2.55 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Hughes had 77 points in 61 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Hughes has 1 game left; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Hughes for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Jack Hughes has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Hughes's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.016, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.55, Offensive-zone start % 79.3%.
Carlson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 99.8, Goals above expected +2.6, On-ice PDO 1009.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jack Hughes
2.55
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jack Hughes has the edge.
| Points per game from | Hughes | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.95 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.25 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Hughes vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Hughes 5G 14A, 68 SOG · Carlson 7G 19A, 66 SOG
Hughes blocked 1 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 10 of Hughes's.
On the ice against each other (Hughes's side)
5:33 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Hughes's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–7
- 58.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.7
- 24.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hughes | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | NJD 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-11-30 | NJD 5–6 WSH | 0G 3A 6S | 0G 3A 5S |
| 2024-11-23 | NJD 3–2 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-10-19 | NJD 5–6 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-10-12 | NJD 5–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2024-02-20 | NJD 2–6 WSH | 0G 0A 7S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-01-03 | NJD 6–3 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-10-25 | NJD 4–6 WSH | 0G 3A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-04-13 | NJD 5–4 WSH | 0G 2A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-26 | NJD 5–1 WSH | 3G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2022-10-24 | NJD 3–6 WSH | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-03-26 | NJD 3–4 WSH | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 3S |
Latest 12 of 24 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jack Hughes
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs PHIOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ NYI2.3 ptsOpp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −4.0 win%vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jack Hughes or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jack Hughes projects to 2.55 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Hughes had 77 points in 61 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jack Hughes or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jack Hughes leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Hughes and Carlson done against each other?
- In 24 games against each other in our data, Hughes's team went 7–17. Hughes had 19 points (5 goals) and Carlson had 26 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →