Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Morgan Frost
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Frost had 43 in 82 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Frost has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. We project Frost for 2.6 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
John Carlson has the better number in 20 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 99.8, Plus/minus +9, High-danger chances 54.5%.
Frost's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.028, 20+ mph bursts 142, Hits 59.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 2 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Morgan Frost
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Frost |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.24 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Frost
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 3G 8A, 45 SOG · Frost 4G 4A, 27 SOG
Carlson blocked 0 of Frost's shots; Frost blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
10:24 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–5
- 70.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.3
- 72.2%
- Goals
- 2–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | ANA 3–5 CGY | 0G 0A 6S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2026-03-26 | ANA 3–2 CGY | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-23 | WSH 3–1 CGY | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-02-25 | WSH 1–3 CGY | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-23 | WSH 6–3 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2024-10-22 | WSH 4–1 PHI | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-16 | WSH 2–1 PHI | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-01 | WSH 5–2 PHI | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-12-14 | WSH 3–4 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2022-12-07 | WSH 4–1 PHI | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-23 | WSH 3–2 PHI | 0G 0A 7S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-12 | WSH 9–2 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Morgan Frost
3games (2 left)
2.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs SEAOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ VAN1.6 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +3.5 win%Likely vs Leevi Meriläinen (.860)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ SEAB2B1.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Morgan Frost in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Frost had 43 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Morgan Frost?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 20 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Frost done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 10–4. Carlson had 11 points (3 goals) and Frost had 8 (4 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →