Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Seth Jarvis
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Seth Jarvis projects to 2.19 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Jarvis had 66 in 71 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Jarvis has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Jarvis for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Seth Jarvis has the better number in 22 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +52, On-ice PDO 1009, Faceoffs won 0.
Jarvis's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.093, Hits 81, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.40.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.14
fantasy points per game
Seth Jarvis
2.19
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Seth Jarvis has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Jarvis |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.39 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.75 | 0.19 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Jarvis
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 4G 10A, 30 SOG · Jarvis 9G 6A, 48 SOG
Carlson blocked 3 of Jarvis's shots; Jarvis blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
15:38 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 22–20
- 52.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.7–1.2
- 57.7%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Jarvis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | WSH 4–3 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-12-11 | WSH 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-11-11 | WSH 4–1 CAR | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-05-15 · PO | WSH 1–3 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2025-05-12 · PO | WSH 2–5 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2025-05-10 · PO | WSH 0–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-05-08 · PO | WSH 3–1 CAR | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-05-06 · PO | WSH 1–2 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-10 | WSH 5–4 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-04-02 | WSH 1–5 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2024-12-20 | WSH 3–1 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-03 | WSH 2–4 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 19 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Seth Jarvis
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 13th-most FP to RWLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Seth Jarvis in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Seth Jarvis projects to 2.19 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Jarvis had 66 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Seth Jarvis?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Seth Jarvis leads in 22 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Jarvis done against each other?
- In 19 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 9–10. Carlson had 14 points (4 goals) and Jarvis had 15 (9 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →