Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Tage Thompson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tage Thompson projects to 2.26 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Thompson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Thompson for 2.6 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Tage Thompson has the better number in 17 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.6, Transition attempts /60 0.96, Plus/minus +9.
Thompson's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.008, Hits 85, 20+ mph bursts 176.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Tage Thompson
2.26
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tage Thompson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.93 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.28 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Thompson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 2G 14A, 49 SOG · Thompson 7G 8A, 49 SOG
Carlson blocked 6 of Thompson's shots; Thompson blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
12:29 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–11
- 38.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.6
- 52.5%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Thompson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | ANA 6–5 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-01 | WSH 3–4 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-03-30 | WSH 5–8 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 6S |
| 2025-01-06 | WSH 3–4 BUF | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2024-12-14 | WSH 4–2 BUF | 0G 3A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-04-11 | WSH 2–4 BUF | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-04-02 | WSH 2–6 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2022-03-25 | WSH 4–3 BUF | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-12-11 | WSH 3–2 BUF | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-11-08 | WSH 5–3 BUF | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-04-15 | WSH 2–5 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2021-02-18 | WSH 3–1 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 22 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Tage Thompson
2games (1 left)
2.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.6 ptsOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Tage Thompson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tage Thompson projects to 2.26 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Tage Thompson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tage Thompson leads in 17 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Thompson done against each other?
- In 22 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 15–7. Carlson had 16 points (2 goals) and Thompson had 15 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →