Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 20 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 0, Transition attempts /60 0.96, Offensive-zone start % 52.0%.
Wilson's biggest edges: Hits 179, Penalty minutes 117, 20+ mph bursts 162.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.24
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.78 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.44 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson blocked 0 of Wilson's shots; Wilson blocked 14 of Carlson's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
249:50 at 5-on-5 over 46 games, 2025-26
- Shot attempts
- 273–217
- 55.7%
- Expected goals
- 13.9–10.5
- 56.9%
- Goals
- 20–8
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 20 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →