Who to start · 2025-26
J.T. Miller vs Leo Carlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63.
Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games.
This week Miller has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlsson for 1.6 ESPN points to Miller's 1.5.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 21 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Miller's biggest edges: Draw Equity /100 +0.123, Hits 123, Faceoff win % 61.5%.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Ascension score 59, Plus/minus +4, Goals above expected +1.4.
Head to head on the dot, Miller leads Carlsson 7–6.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
J.T. Miller
1.63
fantasy points per game
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Miller | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.42 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Miller vs Carlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Miller 1G 4A, 8 SOG · Carlsson 1G 4A, 9 SOG
Miller's offensive zone 5–3 · neutral 1–2 · Miller's defensive zone 1–1 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Miller's side)
7:46 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Miller's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–7
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.1
- 78.1%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Miller | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | NYR 1–4 ANA | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-28 | NYR 4–5 ANA | 1G 1A 1S | 1G 3A 3S |
| 2024-11-05 | VAN 5–1 ANA | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-31 | VAN 3–2 ANA | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
J.T. Miller
4games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.5 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start J.T. Miller or Leo Carlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63. Miller had 53 points in 68 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, J.T. Miller or Leo Carlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 21 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Miller and Carlsson done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Miller's team went 2–2. Miller had 5 points (1 goals) and Carlsson had 5 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Miller or Carlsson?
- Against each other, Miller has won 7 and Carlsson 6 of their 13 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →