Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Mathew Barzal
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Barzal had 72 in 81 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Barzal has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlsson for 1.6 ESPN points to Barzal's 1.4.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 19 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.4, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.29, Shorthanded points 3.
Barzal's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.36, On-ice PDO 1006, Blocked shots 50.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.02
fantasy points per game
Mathew Barzal
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Barzal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.83 | 0.47 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Barzal
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 2G 2A, 9 SOG · Barzal 2G 1A, 13 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 0–2 · neutral 3–2 · Carlsson's defensive zone 1–0 (2025-26)
Carlsson blocked 0 of Barzal's shots; Barzal blocked 1 of Carlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
18:58 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 25–18
- 58.1%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–0.7
- 64.4%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Barzal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | ANA 5–1 NYI | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-12-11 | ANA 2–5 NYI | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-10-29 | ANA 3–1 NYI | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2023-12-13 | ANA 3–4 NYI | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Mathew Barzal
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +4.1 win%vs Nico Daws (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Mathew Barzal in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Barzal had 72 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Mathew Barzal?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 19 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Barzal done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 2–2. Carlsson had 4 points (2 goals) and Barzal had 3 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Barzal?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 4 and Barzal 4 of their 8 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →