Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left; MacKinnon has 1 left. We project MacKinnon for 2.8 ESPN points to Carlsson's 2.1.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Ascension score 59, Shorthanded points 3, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.29.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1054, Forecheck xG /60 0.34, Hits 64.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Carlsson 18–10.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 1.49 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.87 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 5G 1A, 21 SOG · MacKinnon 3G 12A, 31 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 4–4 · neutral 4–11 · Carlsson's defensive zone 2–3 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
Carlsson blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Carlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
12:47 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 18–8
- 69.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.4–0.3
- 84.2%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | ANA 1–5 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-11-11 | ANA 1–4 COL | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 3A 3S |
| 2024-12-20 | ANA 2–4 COL | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 3S |
| 2024-10-18 | ANA 3–4 COL | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 9S |
| 2023-12-05 | ANA 2–3 COL | 1G 0A 5S | 1G 2A 5S |
| 2023-12-02 | ANA 4–3 COL | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2023-11-15 | ANA 2–8 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
2.1proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGK
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA2.1 pts
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.8proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.8 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 1–6. Carlsson had 6 points (5 goals) and MacKinnon had 15 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 10 and MacKinnon 18 of their 28 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →