Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Carlsson's 1.6.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 25 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Ascension score 59, Goals above expected +1.4, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.29.
Aho's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.39, Hits 63, Draw Equity /100 +0.005.
Head to head on the dot, Aho leads Carlsson 9–8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 1G 0A, 8 SOG · Aho 1G 2A, 5 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 2–1 · neutral 3–7 · Carlsson's defensive zone 3–1 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
12:41 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–10
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.4
- 50.6%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | ANA 2–5 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-16 | ANA 1–4 CAR | 1G 0A 5S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-03-23 | ANA 2–5 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-01-12 | ANA 3–2 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 25 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Aho done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 1–3. Carlsson had 1 points (1 goals) and Aho had 3 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Aho?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 8 and Aho 9 of their 17 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →