Who to start · 2025-26
Mario Ferraro vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mario Ferraro projects to 1.71 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Ferraro had 23 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Ferraro has 1 game left; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Ferraro for 1.6 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Pavel Buchnevich has the better number in 22 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Ferraro's biggest edges: Hits 137, Luck Meter +50, Goals above expected +2.7.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 42.9%, Power-play share 53.8%, Sequence xG 52.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mario Ferraro
1.71
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mario Ferraro has the edge.
| Points per game from | Ferraro | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.95 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Ferraro vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Ferraro 0G 5A, 18 SOG · Buchnevich 5G 12A, 40 SOG
Ferraro blocked 1 of Buchnevich's shots; Buchnevich blocked 1 of Ferraro's.
On the ice against each other (Ferraro's side)
14:43 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Ferraro's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–6
- 64.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.1
- 72.7%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Ferraro | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | SJS 5–4 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2026-03-26 | SJS 1–2 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-03-06 | SJS 2–3 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-12 | SJS 4–3 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-21 | SJS 2–3 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-10-10 | SJS 4–5 STL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-06 | SJS 3–2 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-03-30 | SJS 4–0 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-11-16 | SJS 5–1 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 8S |
| 2023-03-09 | SJS 2–4 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2023-03-02 | SJS 3–6 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 4A 1S |
| 2022-11-10 | SJS 3–5 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 1S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mario Ferraro
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET1.6 ptsOpp allows 15th-most FP to DLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −16.8 win%vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mario Ferraro or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mario Ferraro projects to 1.71 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Ferraro had 23 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mario Ferraro or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Buchnevich leads in 22 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Ferraro and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, Ferraro's team went 5–12. Ferraro had 5 points (0 goals) and Buchnevich had 17 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →