Who to start · 2025-26
Mario Ferraro vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mario Ferraro's 1.71.
Ferraro had 23 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Ferraro has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Ferraro's 1.6.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Ferraro's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.7, Luck Meter +50, On-ice PDO 1007.
Hertl's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 47.7%, Corsi 56.2%, Fenwick 55.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mario Ferraro
1.71
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Ferraro | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.29 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.95 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Ferraro vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2020-21 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Ferraro 0G 2A, 6 SOG · Hertl 6G 6A, 19 SOG
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Ferraro's side)
14:05 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Ferraro's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–10
- 54.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.2
- 69.6%
- Goals
- 2–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Ferraro | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | SJS 2–7 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 2G 3A 3S |
| 2025-12-23 | SJS 2–7 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-29 | SJS 3–4 VGK | 0G 1A 2S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-09 | SJS 3–4 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-07 | SJS 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-27 | SJS 3–6 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-26 | SJS 3–7 VGK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 3S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mario Ferraro
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET1.6 ptsOpp allows 15th-most FP to DLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mario Ferraro or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mario Ferraro's 1.71. Ferraro had 23 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mario Ferraro or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Ferraro and Hertl done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, Ferraro's team went 0–7. Ferraro had 2 points (0 goals) and Hertl had 12 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →