Who to start · 2025-26
Mathew Barzal vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mathew Barzal projects to 1.82 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Barzal has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Cates for 1.5 ESPN points to Barzal's 1.4.
Mathew Barzal has the better number in 19 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Barzal's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 313, Offensive-zone time 45.4%, Corsi 51.6%.
Cates's biggest edges: Hits 102, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, High-danger chances 52.6%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mathew Barzal
1.82
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.45
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mathew Barzal has the edge.
| Points per game from | Barzal | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Barzal vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Barzal 3G 5A, 27 SOG · Cates 2G 2A, 22 SOG
Barzal's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 4–2 · Barzal's defensive zone 0–1 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
Barzal blocked 0 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 1 of Barzal's.
On the ice against each other (Barzal's side)
15:57 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Barzal's side
- Shot attempts
- 15–11
- 57.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.5
- 44.8%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Barzal | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | NYI 1–4 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-01-26 | NYI 4–0 PHI | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-28 | NYI 3–4 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-25 | NYI 3–4 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-30 | NYI 3–0 PHI | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-24 | NYI 3–1 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-16 | NYI 3–5 PHI | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-01 | NYI 4–3 PHI | 0G 1A 5S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-25 | NYI 0–1 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-22 | NYI 3–2 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-06 | NYI 2–1 PHI | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-29 | NYI 1–3 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mathew Barzal
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +12.9 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mathew Barzal or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mathew Barzal projects to 1.82 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mathew Barzal or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mathew Barzal leads in 19 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Barzal and Cates done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Barzal's team went 7–6. Barzal had 8 points (3 goals) and Cates had 4 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Barzal or Cates?
- Against each other, Barzal has won 5 and Cates 4 of their 9 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →