Who to start · 2025-26
Mitch Marner vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mitch Marner projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Marner has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Marner for 2.3 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Mitch Marner has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Marner's biggest edges: Plus/minus +17, Fenwick 55.3%, High-danger chances 59.0%.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Hardest shot 88.9, Forecheck xG /60 0.31, 20+ mph bursts 63.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mitch Marner
1.88
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mitch Marner has the edge.
| Points per game from | Marner | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.67 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Marner vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marner 6G 12A, 49 SOG · Buchnevich 7G 10A, 41 SOG
On the ice against each other (Marner's side)
8:47 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Marner's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–6
- 70.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.9–0.5
- 66.0%
- Goals
- 2–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marner | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | VGK 4–2 STL | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-02 | VGK 3–4 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2025-11-15 | VGK 4–1 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-02 | TOR 2–4 STL | 1G 0A 6S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-24 | TOR 1–5 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2024-02-19 | TOR 4–2 STL | 0G 3A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-01-03 | TOR 5–6 STL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-12-27 | TOR 5–4 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-02-19 | TOR 3–6 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 2G 0A 7S |
| 2020-02-05 | TOR 3–5 NYR | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 2A 6S |
| 2019-12-28 | TOR 4–5 NYR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-12-20 | TOR 6–3 NYR | 2G 0A 6S | 1G 1A 3S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.3 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −16.8 win%vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mitch Marner or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mitch Marner projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mitch Marner or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mitch Marner leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Marner and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Marner's team went 9–9. Marner had 18 points (6 goals) and Buchnevich had 17 (7 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →