Who to start · 2025-26
Mitch Marner vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mitch Marner projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Marner has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Marner for 2.3 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Mitch Marner has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Marner's biggest edges: Plus/minus +17, High-danger chances 59.0%, Fenwick 55.3%.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.64, Hardest shot 89.2, Hits 48.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mitch Marner
1.88
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mitch Marner has the edge.
| Points per game from | Marner | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.67 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Marner vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marner 10G 23A, 87 SOG · Toffoli 10G 12A, 75 SOG
Marner blocked 3 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Marner's.
On the ice against each other (Marner's side)
14:59 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Marner's side
- Shot attempts
- 15–15
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.2
- 81.2%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marner | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | VGK 7–2 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-23 | VGK 7–2 SJS | 2G 0A 5S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2025-11-29 | VGK 4–3 SJS | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-09 | VGK 4–3 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-27 | TOR 5–6 SJS | 0G 3A 2S | 2G 1A 7S |
| 2025-03-03 | TOR 2–3 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-02 | TOR 2–1 CGY | 1G 0A 8S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-10 | TOR 5–4 CGY | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-10-13 | TOR 2–1 MTL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-05-31 · PO | TOR 1–3 MTL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2021-05-29 · PO | TOR 2–3 MTL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2021-05-27 · PO | TOR 3–4 MTL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 32 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.3 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mitch Marner or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mitch Marner projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mitch Marner or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mitch Marner leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Marner and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 32 games against each other in our data, Marner's team went 22–10. Marner had 33 points (10 goals) and Toffoli had 22 (10 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →