Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Frost vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30.
Frost had 43 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Frost has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Frost for 2.6 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Frost's biggest edges: Goals above expected +3.0, Luck Meter +3, 20+ mph bursts 142.
Hertl's biggest edges: Ascension score 61, High-danger chances 59.2%, Scoring chances 56.7%.
Head to head on the dot, Hertl leads Frost 13–9.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Frost
1.30
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Frost | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Frost vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Frost 4G 2A, 20 SOG · Hertl 9G 8A, 40 SOG
Frost's offensive zone 3–5 · neutral 2–3 · Frost's defensive zone 4–5 (2021-22 to 2025-26)
Frost blocked 0 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 1 of Frost's.
On the ice against each other (Frost's side)
6:53 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Frost's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–6
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.1
- 86.1%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Frost | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | CGY 3–6 VGK | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-20 | CGY 6–3 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2025-10-18 | CGY 1–6 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2025-10-14 | CGY 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-04-15 | CGY 5–4 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2025-01-02 | PHI 2–5 VGK | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-25 | PHI 4–5 VGK | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-12-29 | PHI 4–3 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 1A 2S |
| 2022-10-23 | PHI 0–3 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-01-08 | PHI 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 3G 0A 7S |
| 2021-12-30 | PHI 2–3 SJS | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2019-12-28 | PHI 1–6 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 6S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Frost
3games (2 left)
2.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs SEAOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ VAN1.6 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +3.5 win%Likely vs Leevi Meriläinen (.860)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ SEAB2B1.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Frost or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30. Frost had 43 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Frost or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Frost and Hertl done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Frost's team went 3–9. Frost had 6 points (4 goals) and Hertl had 17 (9 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Frost or Hertl?
- Against each other, Frost has won 9 and Hertl 13 of their 22 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →