Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Rielly vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Rielly has 1 game left; Cates has 1 left. We project Rielly for 1.5 ESPN points to Cates's 1.2.
Noah Cates has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Rielly's biggest edges: Ascension score 60, 20+ mph bursts 71, Transition attempts /60 0.63.
Cates's biggest edges: Plus/minus +26, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Expected goals 53.9%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Rielly
1.61
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Morgan Rielly has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rielly | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.67 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rielly vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rielly 2G 8A, 24 SOG · Cates 1G 3A, 15 SOG
Rielly blocked 3 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 0 of Rielly's.
On the ice against each other (Rielly's side)
13:32 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Rielly's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–21
- 30.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.6
- 38.8%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rielly | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | TOR 2–3 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2026-01-08 | TOR 2–1 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-01 | TOR 5–2 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7–2 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-07 | TOR 3–2 PHI | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-01-05 | TOR 3–2 PHI | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-03-19 | TOR 3–4 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-14 | TOR 6–2 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-01-08 | TOR 6–2 PHI | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-11-02 | TOR 5–2 PHI | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-04-19 | TOR 5–2 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-04-02 | TOR 6–3 PHI | 1G 2A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BSchedule edge −9.3 win%
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.5 pts
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BSchedule edge −9.3 win%
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.2 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Rielly or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Rielly or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Noah Cates leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rielly and Cates done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Rielly's team went 10–2. Rielly had 10 points (2 goals) and Cates had 4 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →