Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week MacKinnon has 1 game left; Cates has 1 left. We project MacKinnon for 3.2 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 455, Hardest shot 91.0, Corsi 57.6%.
Cates's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Blocked shots 51, Hits 102.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Cates 8–8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | MacKinnon | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.49 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.87 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.46 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 3G 7A, 18 SOG · Cates 0G 2A, 8 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 4–3 · neutral 2–4 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 2–1 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
8:53 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 16–3
- 84.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.2
- 63.4%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | COL 3–7 PHI | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-07 | COL 3–2 PHI | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-02 | COL 2–0 PHI | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-11-18 | COL 3–2 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-01-20 | COL 7–4 PHI | 2G 2A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-12-05 | COL 3–5 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
3.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL3.2 pts
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2B
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Cates done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 4–2. MacKinnon had 10 points (3 goals) and Cates had 2 (0 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Cates?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 8 and Cates 8 of their 16 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →