Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week MacKinnon has 1 game left; Toffoli has 1 left. We project MacKinnon for 2.8 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.3.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 31 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.8, Plus/minus +57, 20+ mph bursts 455.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.05.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | MacKinnon | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.49 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.87 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 14G 29A, 119 SOG · Toffoli 10G 9A, 71 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 0–5 (2023-24 to 2024-25)
MacKinnon blocked 1 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
12:19 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 18–13
- 58.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.6
- 58.6%
- Goals
- 2–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | COL 4–2 SJS | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-26 | COL 6–0 SJS | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-01 | COL 2–3 SJS | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-06 | COL 7–3 SJS | 2G 3A 8S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-12-19 | COL 4–2 SJS | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-20 | COL 4–1 SJS | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-04-30 · PO | COL 6–3 WPG | 0G 2A 7S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-28 · PO | COL 5–1 WPG | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-04-26 · PO | COL 6–2 WPG | 1G 1A 8S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-23 · PO | COL 5–2 WPG | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-21 · PO | COL 6–7 WPG | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-13 | COL 0–7 WPG | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 5S |
Latest 12 of 28 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.8proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.8 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLA
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.3 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 31 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 28 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 17–11. MacKinnon had 43 points (14 goals) and Toffoli had 19 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Toffoli?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 1 and Toffoli 5 of their 6 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →