Who to start · 2025-26
Noah Cates vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Cates had 47 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Cates has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Cates's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, On-ice PDO 1026, Blocked shots 51.
Aho's biggest edges: Corsi 61.5%, Fenwick 60.3%, 20+ mph bursts 128.
Head to head on the dot, Aho leads Cates 38–15.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Cates | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.39 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.31 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Cates vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Cates 1G 4A, 14 SOG · Aho 5G 6A, 28 SOG
Cates's offensive zone 5–9 · neutral 6–14 · Cates's defensive zone 4–15 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
Cates blocked 1 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 0 of Cates's.
On the ice against each other (Cates's side)
15:23 at 5-on-5 over 5 games, 2025-26, from Cates's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–12
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.4
- 53.7%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Cates | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 · PO | PHI 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-02 · PO | PHI 0–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-14 | PHI 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-12-13 | PHI 3–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-10-11 | PHI 3–4 CAR | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-03-15 | PHI 0–5 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-20 | PHI 1–4 CAR | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-11-05 | PHI 4–6 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-03-21 | PHI 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-11-15 | PHI 3–1 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-10-30 | PHI 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-03-18 | PHI 4–5 CAR | 1G 1A 3S | 3G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +12.9 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Noah Cates or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Cates had 47 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Noah Cates or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Cates and Aho done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Cates's team went 1–14. Cates had 5 points (1 goals) and Aho had 11 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Cates or Aho?
- Against each other, Cates has won 15 and Aho 38 of their 53 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →