Who to start · 2025-26
Parker Kelly vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Parker Kelly's 1.51.
Kelly had 35 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Kelly has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left. We project Hertl for 1.8 ESPN points to Kelly's 1.4.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 19 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Kelly's biggest edges: Goals above expected +7.5, Luck Meter +72, Forecheck xG /60 0.46.
Hertl's biggest edges: Draw Equity /100 +0.096, Faceoff win % 57.8%, Power-play share 78.1%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Parker Kelly
1.51
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Kelly | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Kelly vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Kelly 0G 1A, 11 SOG · Hertl 6G 7A, 25 SOG
Kelly's offensive zone 0–1 · neutral 0–2 · Kelly's defensive zone 1–3 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Kelly's side)
15:55 at 5-on-5 over 6 games, 2025-26, from Kelly's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–22
- 33.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–1.2
- 12.1%
- Goals
- 0–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Kelly | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 · PO | COL 1–2 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-05-24 · PO | COL 3–5 VGK | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2026-05-22 · PO | COL 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-20 · PO | COL 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-04-11 | COL 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-12-27 | COL 6–5 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-31 | COL 4–2 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-27 | COL 2–1 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-10-09 | COL 4–8 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-01-13 | OTT 5–4 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-12-03 | OTT 5–2 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2022-11-21 | OTT 1–5 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Parker Kelly
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.4 pts
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN1.8 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Parker Kelly or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Parker Kelly's 1.51. Kelly had 35 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Parker Kelly or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 19 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Kelly and Hertl done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Kelly's team went 5–8. Kelly had 1 points (0 goals) and Hertl had 13 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Kelly or Hertl?
- Against each other, Kelly has won 1 and Hertl 6 of their 7 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →