Who to start · 2025-26
Pavel Buchnevich vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Buchnevich has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.022, Net penalties drawn /60 −0.12, Offensive-zone start % 53.1%.
Wilson's biggest edges: Hits 179, Plus/minus +15, Top skating speed 22.8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.24
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Buchnevich | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.46 | 0.78 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Buchnevich vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Buchnevich 8G 11A, 47 SOG · Wilson 8G 6A, 40 SOG
Buchnevich blocked 0 of Wilson's shots; Wilson blocked 3 of Buchnevich's.
On the ice against each other (Buchnevich's side)
7:34 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Buchnevich's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–5
- 64.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.2
- 63.7%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Buchnevich | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | STL 3–0 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-05 | STL 1–6 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2024-11-09 | STL 1–8 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2024-01-20 | STL 3–0 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-18 | STL 2–5 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-03-17 | STL 5–2 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-03-22 | STL 5–2 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2022-01-07 | STL 5–1 WSH | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-05-05 | NYR 2–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-05-03 | NYR 3–6 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2021-03-30 | NYR 5–2 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-03-28 | NYR 4–5 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 24 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Tom Wilson
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAROpp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Pavel Buchnevich or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Pavel Buchnevich or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Buchnevich and Wilson done against each other?
- In 24 games against each other in our data, Buchnevich's team went 12–12. Buchnevich had 19 points (8 goals) and Wilson had 14 (8 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →