Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Pavel Buchnevich vs Tomas Hertl

Pavel BuchnevichPavel BuchnevichBlues · Left wingvsTomas HertlTomas HertlGolden Knights · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.

Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.

This week Buchnevich has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.

Tomas Hertl has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

Buchnevich's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1000, Forecheck xG /60 0.31, Goals above expected −0.4.

Hertl's biggest edges: Draw Equity /100 +0.096, Faceoff win % 57.8%, Hits 114.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Pavel Buchnevich

1.30

fantasy points per game

Tomas Hertl

1.88

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromBuchnevichHertl
Goals (+2)0.460.63
Assists (+1)0.320.37
Power-play points (+0.5)0.080.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.160.27
Hits (+0.1)0.030.14
Blocks (+0.5)0.230.30

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head

Pavel Buchnevich and Tomas Hertl have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

BuchnevichHertl

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Pavel Buchnevich

2games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Fri, Oct 2 @ DAL
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 pts
    Opp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)

Tomas Hertl

3games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
    Opp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
  • Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
  • Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 pts
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Pavel Buchnevich or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Pavel Buchnevich or Tomas Hertl?
On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →