Who to start · 2025-26
Sebastian Aho vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Aho has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Aho's biggest edges: Fenwick 60.3%, Corsi 61.5%, Penalty minutes 46.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, On-ice PDO 1006, Luck Meter +14.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Aho | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.72 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.59 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Aho vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Aho 9G 6A, 41 SOG · Toffoli 5G 4A, 49 SOG
Aho's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Aho's defensive zone 0–0 (2017-18)
Aho blocked 0 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Aho's.
On the ice against each other (Aho's side)
10:35 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Aho's side
- Shot attempts
- 19–7
- 73.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.4
- 63.5%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Aho | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | CAR 1–4 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-14 | CAR 5–1 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-03-20 | CAR 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-10 | CAR 3–2 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-02-10 | CAR 1–0 NJD | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2024-01-25 | CAR 3–2 NJD | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-26 | CAR 3–2 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-10-22 | CAR 2–3 CGY | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2021-10-21 | CAR 4–1 MTL | 2G 1A 5S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2020-01-11 | CAR 2–0 LAK | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-10-15 | CAR 2–0 LAK | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-02-26 | CAR 6–1 LAK | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Sebastian Aho or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Sebastian Aho or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Aho and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Aho's team went 11–4. Aho had 15 points (9 goals) and Toffoli had 9 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Aho or Toffoli?
- Against each other, Aho has won 1 and Toffoli 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →