Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W9Alex BachmanWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)15.12.6−12.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Marquise BrownWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.49.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)17.920.0+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.8)20.014.1−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler HuntleyQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)20.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9James ProcheWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kristian WilkersonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)14.420.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)11.614.1+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Brandon AiyukWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)7.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josiah DeguaraTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)21.627.7+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)4.40.5−3.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.333.1+20.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Van JeffersonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)5.03.1−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.12.5+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9DJ TurnerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)13.214.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.45.9−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.80.0−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.54.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)2.60.0−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Luke FarrellTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.61.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)22.017.1−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)10.97.8−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)17.121.2+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8)18.215.8−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.10.0−5.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Justyn RossWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)14.28.7−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.69.9+9.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Montrell WashingtonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)4.20.0−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Brandon JohnsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kendric PryorWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Rashid ShaheedWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)9.611.8+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.72.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)12.217.5+5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)16.116.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)7.23.0−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)10.010.6+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.79.0+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.23.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyquan ThorntonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.90.0−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nikko RemigioWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.615.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.09.1+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)11.06.8−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Derius DavisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie JonesWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.817.0+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)6.86.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.718.0+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ronnie BellWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.54.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.82.7−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.03.7+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9John ShenkerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 25 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse