Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.7 | 3.5 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 4.1 | 1.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 12.0 | 10.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.8 | 1.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.7 | 2.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.7 | 40.7 | +23.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.4 | 0.0 | −16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | 23.6 | +22.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.9 | 8.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.6 | 3.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.9 | 1.1 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 6.8 | 13.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.8 | 9.1 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 4.5 | 8.8 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.8 | 0.0 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 7.5 | 3.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.6 | 18.2 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.4 | 2.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.1 | 1.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.2 | 5.3 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.6 | 3.6 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.9 | 5.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.0 | 15.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.6 | 9.9 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 9.0 | 24.7 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | 4.9 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.6 | 7.4 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.3 | 6.8 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.9 | 9.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.7 | 4.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.1 | 9.1 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.0 | 16.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.1 | 9.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse