Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.4 | 8.6 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.9 | 3.8 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | 9.6 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.8 | 6.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 16.7 | 20.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 9.4 | 10.6 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.8 | 5.2 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.4 | 16.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 11.9 | 15.4 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.4 | 3.3 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 24.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.0 | 3.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 0.0 | −16.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.7 | 9.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.8 | 27.3 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.7 | 7.1 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.6 | 7.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 17.3 | 27.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.6 | 2.9 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | 3.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 5.1 | 2.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 17.6 | 6.2 | −11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.5 | 21.4 | +16.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 13.0 | 14.3 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 7.5 | 17.3 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.5 | 20.2 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.4 | 8.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.0 | 14.0 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 21.4 | 25.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.2 | 2.3 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.7 | 10.1 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 18.3 | 9.3 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.0 | 8.9 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 20.7 | 13.0 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.2 | 4.0 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 10.1 | 18.6 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.7 | 5.0 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.1 | 5.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 26.3 | 25.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.3 | 4.3 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse